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  1. #1
    Registered User Enthusiast
    Posts
    51

    What reflation trade?

    Payrolls just came in at less than 100,000 new jobs. So you can ignore CPI and unemployment rates. The reflation trade is over. Just think about it:

    1. Oil indicted inflation will be rolling over in March and April from the lows hit in Feb last year.



    2. Despite two interest rate hike by the FED, yields on the 10 year have been declining for weeks, and are now down to 2.289%. Not quite the summer lows, but not over 2.5% like they were just a few weeks ago.

    3. No new infrastructure spending or tax cuts seem imminent. Of course, Congress only works about 8 days a month, so why should we expect them to actually accomplish anything.

    Cold hard reality is about to crush the hope of the reflation trade.

  2. What reflation trade?
  3. #2
    Registered User Semi Pro Member
    Posts
    414
    Spreads between short and longer dated bonds have been tighter than ever for months. Also a good sign that reflation is not happening.

  4. #3
    Registered User Senior Member
    Posts
    101
    Wow, garyol, you really called it.

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